Market Performance: Global Growth Differentiation, Emerging Markets Become New Engines

Global Installation Maintains Steady Expansion

• Global new PV installations are expected to reach 599GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11% . Although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, the overall scale continues to hit new highs.
• Regional differentiation is prominent: China’s new installations are expected to reach 290GW, maintaining a high level; the U.S. and Europe will add 50GW and 70GW respectively, with stable growth; emerging markets such as the Middle East and India will contribute significant increments, with year-on-year growth rates of 87% and 29% respectively .

China’s Market Structure Continues to Optimize

• From January to October 2025, China’s new PV installations reached 252.87GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%, driven by the rush to install under Policy 136 . Distributed PV has become the main growth driver, accounting for over 53% of new installations, among which industrial and commercial distributed PV maintains strong growth momentum.
• The export structure is adjusted: from January to September 2025, China’s PV product export volume increased slightly year-on-year, with battery chip exports surging by 90.1% . African markets showed explosive growth, with 44 out of 57 countries achieving positive growth, becoming a key support for export growth .

Manufacturing Landscape: Anti-Involution Takes Effect, Industry Gradually Recovers

Policy + Market Jointly Promote Capacity Clearing

• The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" (Guanghe Qiancheng) was officially registered and established . Adopting the model of "debt-assuming acquisition + flexible capacity storage," it aims to resolve supply-demand mismatch through market-oriented and legal mechanisms, setting a model for curing "involutionary competition."
• Overcapacity pressure eases: the effective capacity of domestic polysilicon will drop to about 240 tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 . The closure rate of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry exceeds 30%, and the market share of leading enterprises continues to concentrate .

Industrial Chain Prices Bottom Out and Recover

• Silicon material prices have rebounded significantly: the transaction price of N-type polysilicon has risen from 35,000 yuan/ton in July to 53,600 yuan/ton in November, an increase of nearly 50% 今日头条. Recently, manufacturers have raised quotations to 65,000 yuan/ton, releasing a clear bottoming signal .
• The price recovery of the entire industrial chain: silicon wafers have entered a rebound cycle driven by inventory clearance, with prices expected to rise by at least 0.05 yuan/W . Battery chip manufacturers have collectively locked positions and raised prices, with the transaction price stably above 0.3 yuan/W . Component prices are expected to achieve a full price-conduction upward trend in the second quarter of 2026 .

Corporate Performance Improves Quarter by Quarter

• The loss of the industry narrows significantly: in the third quarter of 2025, the net profit loss of 31 A-share listed companies in the main PV industrial chain narrowed to 6.422 billion yuan, a sequential decrease of 46.7% .
• Capital expenditure is more prudent: from January to September 2025, the total capital expenditure of 70 listed PV equipment companies decreased by 46.4% year-on-year, indicating that enterprises have shifted from blind expansion to quality improvement .

Technological Innovation: Iteration Accelerates, Perovskite Enters the Era of GW-Scale Mass Production

N-Type Technology Fully Dominates the Market

• N-type batteries account for over 90% of the market share . TOPCon 2.0 technology has become the mainstream due to its low transformation cost and high efficiency, with mass production efficiency reaching 26% . BC batteries have gained significant price premiums in distributed scenarios, with a premium range of 0.04-0.1 yuan/W .
• The trend of "large-size + thin-wafer" deepens: 182mm and 210mm large-size silicon wafers account for over 95% of the market, and the thickness of silicon wafers continues to decrease, further reducing production costs .

Perovskite Industrialization Achieves Breakthroughs

• 2025 has become the "first year of GW-scale mass production" of perovskite . GW-scale production lines of enterprises such as GCL Optoelectronics and Extreme Optoelectronics have been put into operation one after another, and the mass production efficiency of single-junction modules has exceeded 18-19% .
• Efficiency continues to break through: the efficiency of perovskite/silicon tandem batteries developed by Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar has exceeded 34% . The industrial-grade size tandem module independently developed by Xi’an Tianjiao New Energy has achieved an efficiency of 29.69% .
• The application scenario expands: flexible perovskite components are gradually applied to BIPV, vehicle-mounted photovoltaics and other fields, opening up a new track for the industry .

Industry Challenges: Trade Barriers Upgrade, Global Layout Faces Restructuring

Intensified Trade Protectionism

• The EU’s supply chain localization strategy is implemented: Italy has introduced new regulations, explicitly prohibiting Chinese PV modules from participating in subsidized projects, and requiring key components such as battery chips and inverters to not be of Chinese origin . This move may trigger a chain reaction in other EU countries.
• The U.S. maintains high anti-dumping duties: the final ruling rate on PV products from Southeast Asia is 15%-380%, disrupting the global supply chain layout of Chinese enterprises .
• Green trade barriers emerge: the EU’s "Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive" requires enterprises to disclose supply chain carbon footprint data, raising the threshold for market access .

Persistent Structural Contradictions

• Grid connection constraints still exist: although China’s PV utilization rate recovered to 95% in the first three quarters of 2025 , the problem of limited grid absorption capacity in some regions remains a key factor restricting the development of the industry.
• The cost pressure of high-efficiency technology: the silver consumption of N-type batteries is 30% higher than that of traditional technologies, and the popularization of copper paste replacement technology still needs time .

Future Outlook: Policy Escort, Industry Enters a New Stage of High-Quality Development

Policy Guidance Strengthens the Development Foundation

• The central economic work conference clearly regards "in-depth rectification of involutionary competition" as a key task in 2026 今日头条, providing policy support for the healthy development of the PV industry.
• The national energy policy is optimized: the capacity price mechanism is introduced to promote new energy consumption , and the proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity is expected to reach 60% in 2025 .

Market Demand Shifts to Quality Growth

• Emerging markets will become the main increment: the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and other regions have strong demand for energy transformation, and the growth rate of private PPA projects is rapid . It is expected that the global PV installed capacity will break through 1,000GW by 2030 .
• The domestic market focuses on quality improvement: the development of rural distributed photovoltaics and desert Gobi large bases is accelerated, and the integration with the new power system is deepened .

The Competition Pattern Turns to Value Competition

• Technological innovation becomes the core driving force: enterprises will increase R&D investment in tandem batteries, thin-film technology and other fields to build differentiated competitiveness .
• Global layout is optimized: Chinese enterprises will accelerate overseas production layout to cope with trade barriers, and the trend of "battery chips going overseas + local assembly" will become more prominent .