PV Industry Enters Critical Juncture: From Quantity Expansion to Quality Breakthrough

JSJA, December 5, 2025

As the global energy transition accelerates, the photovoltaic industry stands at a pivotal crossroads in late 2025. China remains the industry's powerhouse with 90%+ global manufacturing share and 1,125GW cumulative installed capacity , yet faces dual challenges of overcapacity and profitability pressure. The sector is undergoing a fundamental shift from "scale competition" to "quality breakthrough," driven by technological innovation, policy adjustments, and market self-correction.

Market Performance: Unprecedented Scale with Structural Transformation

• Global PV installations reached 380GW in the first three quarters of 2025, up 30% year-on-year, with China contributing 240GW (63%)
• Full-year 2025 global installations expected to exceed 500GW , with cumulative capacity approaching 4,000GW milestone
• China's total installed capacity surpassed 112.5GW by end-September 2025 , growing 45.7% year-on-year, equivalent to the entire EU's power generation capacity

• Q1-Q3 2025 new installations: 239.53GW , including 111.59GW utility-scale (46.6%) and 127.94GW distributed (53.4%)
• Distributed PV emerges as growth engine: commercial-industrial distributed PV added 93.5GW (47.4% of total), growing 50% year-on-year
• Regional leaders: Jiangsu, Xinjiang, and Guangdong provinces topped the nation with combined installations exceeding 60GW

Manufacturing Landscape: Supply-Demand Imbalance with Early Recovery Signs

• China's production capacity remains dominant: polysilicon (1.82M tons), wafers (753GW), cells (654GW), modules (588GW)
• Supply-demand gap widens: industry inventory levels remain elevated, with upstream prices experiencing another downward trend in November
• Polysilicon production dropped 16% month-on-month in November , as Southwest China producers cut output due to dry season power constraints

• Q3 2025 financial reports show margin improvement: industry-wide losses significantly narrowed
• Some leading companies turning profitable: Sungrow Power reported Q3 net profit of 4.15B yuan (+57.04% YoY)
• Price stabilization emerges: main industry chain prices show signs of recovery following "anti-involution" measures
• "Anti-involution" campaign gains traction: China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued strict guidelines against below-cost selling , with 118 companies signing self-discipline commitments

Technology Revolution: Breakthroughs Paving New Growth Paths

• N-type cells have replaced P-type as mainstream, with TOPCon market share surging from 23% to 71.1% in 2024
• High-efficiency module production ramps up: HPBC 2.0 modules (Longi) achieve 24.8% efficiency , while HJT modules (Huansheng) reach 24.5% with 760W output

• Most significant breakthrough: Jinko Power's perovskite/TOPCon tandem cell achieves 34.76% conversion efficiency , certified by National PV Industry Measurement Center
• CAS researchers develop perovskite cell with 27.2% efficiency and improved stability
• Industrialization accelerates: Jing 山轻机 begins mass delivery of perovskite production equipment , bringing commercialization closer

• JA Solar launches DesertBlue series for arid regions: 650W output, 24% efficiency with nano anti-dust coating reducing transmittance degradation by 32%
• Longi's "Three-proof" modules demonstrate 6.3% higher power generation than standard TOPCon in complex shading conditions

Industry Challenges: Trade Barriers and Profitability Pressures

• US maintains stringent policies: 271.28% anti-dumping duties on Southeast Asian PV products , with FEOC rules tightening supply chain scrutiny
• EU establishes new barriers: minimum import price of €0.18/W for Chinese modules , 30% local preference for renewable projects from 2025 year-end
• Brazil increases tariffs from 9.6% to 25% with quota system , while Thailand tightens origin certification for US-bound PV
• Export challenges: China's PV exports declined 33.9% YoY in 2024 , with new barriers limiting alternative routes

• Despite production growth, profitability remains elusive: 118 listed PV companies saw combined net profit drop 88.01% YoY in first three quarters
• Industry bifurcation: while Jinko, JA Solar, and Trina continue to report losses exceeding 3B yuan , technology leaders like Sungrow Power and GCL System Integration achieve profit growth
• Cost pressures: silver consumption for high-efficiency N-type cells increased 30% compared to traditional technologies , straining margins

Outlook: Quality-Oriented Development with Bright Prospects

• "Anti-involution" initiatives gain momentum: industry alliance releases Chengdu Declaration advocating quality competition over price wars 今日头条
• Supply-demand balance improves: polysilicon production cuts of 16% in November signal industry's self-regulation
• Capacity rationalization: 40% year-on-year increase in PV company cancellations in 2024 indicates elimination of inefficient producers

• National Energy Administration raises 2025 non-fossil energy target to 60% of installed capacity
• New industry standards: "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Norms" mandate minimum efficiency requirements, accelerating backward capacity elimination
• Local government incentives: Zhejiang's high-quality development plan and Guangzhou's distributed PV subsidies provide additional momentum

• Tandem technology emerges as game-changer: perovskite-silicon combinations achieve 30-35% efficiency , potentially halving Levelized Cost of Energy
• Industry convergence: photovoltaic and energy storage integration projects reached 8.4GW/22.3GWh in 2024 , creating new business models
• Manufacturing innovation: breakthroughs in thin wafer technology (110μm for HJT) and large-size silicon (182/210mm) reduce material usage by 15-20%

Conclusion: A New Era of Quality Competition

The PV industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation from quantity expansion to quality breakthrough in late 2025. While challenges like overcapacity and trade barriers persist, technological innovation and policy guidance are steering the sector toward sustainable, high-value growth.

For industry participants, success will hinge on three factors: 1) prioritizing R&D to develop differentiated, high-efficiency products; 2) optimizing global supply chains to navigate trade barriers; and 3) embracing the industry's evolution from price competition to value creation.

As the world accelerates toward carbon neutrality, the photovoltaic industry, now more than ever, will be the cornerstone of the global energy transition - not just as the cheapest energy source, but as a technology leader driving innovation across the entire energy sector.