China remains the "ballast stone" of the global PV market. In 2024, China's new PV installed capacity reached 277.57GW, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, with cumulative grid-connected capacity exceeding 880GW. Both new and cumulative installed capacities ranked first globally [China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd., Page 4]. In terms of structure, distributed PV has become a new growth engine: new distributed PV installed capacity in 2024 was 118.18GW, accounting for 43%, among which industrial and commercial distributed PV surged by 68% year-on-year. As of March 2025, the national cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV reached 411GW, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%.
(Sources: International Energy Agency)
However, the "leadership" in manufacturing is accompanied by the pain of supply-demand imbalance. China's production capacity of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules accounts for over 90% of the global total, with outputs in 2024 reaching 1.82 million tons, 753GW, 654GW, and 588GW respectively. But capacity expansion far outpaced demand: polysilicon prices fell below the variable costs of leading enterprises in 2024, the minimum price of TOPCon modules dropped to 0.6 RMB/W, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of 118 PV listed companies fell by 88.01% year-on-year in the first three quarters, leaving the industry in a dilemma of "increasing production without increasing revenue."
(Sources: China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd.)
Technological iteration has become the "key to breaking the deadlock." In 2024, N-type cells fully replaced P-type cells. TOPCon cells, with low transformation costs and high efficiency, saw their market share soar from 23% to 71.1%. HJT and XBC cells achieved efficiencies of 25.6% and 26.0% respectively; although their production capacities are limited by costs, they show significant future potential [China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd., Page 5]. The trend of "large-size + thin-wafer" in the wafer segment is clear: 182mm and 210mm wafers account for over 95% of the market, and the thickness of N-type wafers for HJT has been reduced to 110μm, further lowering costs.
Policies have defined the "healthy boundaries" for the industry. In 2024, the National Energy Administration required the share of non-fossil energy installed capacity to reach 55%, which will be further increased to 60% in 2025, with the full marketization of new energy electricity prices. Meanwhile, the "Standards for the PV Manufacturing Industry" clarified module efficiency standards, and the export tax rebate rate was reduced from 13% to 9% to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity. Local policies have also kept pace: for example, Zhejiang launched a high-quality development plan for the PV industry, and Huangpu District of Guangzhou provided power generation subsidies for distributed PV.
(Sources: Handing Think Tank)
The industry still faces three major challenges: first, pressure from capacity consolidation— the number of cancelled PV enterprises increased by 40% year-on-year in 2024, with second and third-tier enterprises eliminated due to technological and capital disadvantages; second, the problem of grid absorption— PV utilization rate dropped to 93.4% in February 2024, falling below the 95% red line for the first time; third, trade barriers— the United States imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 271.28% on PV products from Southeast Asia, leading to a 33.9% year-on-year decline in China's PV exports in 2024.
Nevertheless, long-term opportunities remain promising. Although the global installed capacity growth rate will slow down in 2025, emerging markets show great potential, with rapid demand growth in regions with favorable solar resources such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Technologically, the efficiency of perovskite/silicon tandem cells has reached 34.6%, and the scale of solar-storage integration projects reached 8.4GW/22.3GWh in 2024. With the elimination of backward production capacity and policy guidance, the industry will gradually enter a stage of healthy development. As the "cheapest clean energy," PV will remain the core force of the global energy transition.
(Sources: China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd.)
The development of the PV industry has never been a smooth path— it has both the "highlight" of scale expansion and the "low point" of supply-demand imbalance. However, when the "new shoots" of technological iteration break through the "soil" of overcapacity, and when the "spring breeze" of policies disperses the "haze" of trade barriers, this industry bearing the dream of "carbon neutrality" will eventually find balance in adjustment and achieve higher-quality growth in transformation. For industry participants, only by focusing on technology and deepening market layout can they survive and thrive in this "elimination competition."
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